Britain has voted to leave the European Union

[falkor]

While England voted overwhelmingly for Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland backed Remain. Statements are expected to be made by Sinn Fein and the SNP later today calling for a breakaway from the Union. London backed Remain but the turnout was lower than expected because of bad weather.


was it the van that did it?

[powdermonkey]

I expected the result to be close and actually thought it would be closer. I'm pleased at the reported overall turn out of around 72% but would have preferred higher although I imagine that's due to a continuing disengagement with politics and politicians.

As for Scotland, I think it would be disastrous for them to leave the UK but if Sturgeon want's to guarantee independence she should ask for a referendum in the UK "Do we still want Scotland?" and I bet there'd be plenty of people who'd vote to kick them out of the UK never mind them wanting to go. Whether any of that will lead to Wales calling for independence or NI looking at reunification with RoI is debatable. The RoI economy isn't performing that brilliantly at the moment.

Regarding the future, there's no reason for the UK not to be able to negotiate good trade deals with EU countries over the two year period following the invocation of Article 50, all it needs is rational thinking on both sides and common sense. Therein lies the problem. Common sense isn't very common. After the 2 year period it'd probably be harder but not impossible to negotiate a good deal but I think pressure from businesses will help politicians concentrate on making a deal sooner rather than later. It's in the interests of both EU members and ourselves, we all want and need to trade.

The next big issue will be who becomes PM after Cameron goes in October and whether Corbyn remains as Labour leader. I can't think of any MP in her party who I think has the necessary abilities to tae either post. However, once that's settled I believe there'll be an general election by May 2017 resulting in another coalition government. Probably Con Lib again and particularly if Corbyn remains as Labour leader.

The type of government will dictate the view on immigration. The more Tory (especially Leave supporting MPs) the more likely we'll end up with an Australian points type system.

Then there's the question of the "domino effect" on other EU countries. No, I'm talking pizza deliveries. We've seen fairly recent EU referendums in RoI (the Lisbon Treaty) and Denmark (opt outs/closer ties) where there's been ill feeling towards the EU and there are other countries who want stay/leave referendums (Holland), Switzerland has withdrawn it's application to join, and Turkey had raised the idea of a referendum on joining or not. This, in my view, is what Merkel and other European leaders fear the most from the UK result. Not so much us leaving as that can be managed, but that other countries who aren't as committed to the political idea might leave.

I voted leave and my only regret is that Charles de Gaulle who locked us from joining in out of spite isn't still alive to see what may be the start of the EU's decline. I'm not an isolationist, little Englander (stupid insult as it is). We can trade and work together with any country in he world that we wish to. We just don't need to be in a club to do so, especially one that doesn't function very well.

[falkor]

Good post powdermonkey

for me the jubilation of the Leave vote was shortlived as soon as I realised that in fact Scotland and N Ireland had voted massively for Remain

that sours the whole "Leave" decision for me what a mess

[powdermonkey]

If Scotland did vote for independence that'd be more of a surprise to me than if they didn't. Their last referendum was a clear stay in the UK vote and I think that was down to knowing they're better of in the UK, and nothing to with any desire to remain in the EU - they knew at the time the EU referendum was coming with yesterday's result being possible. The reasons why I think the Scots won't vote for independence are mainly centred on falling oil revenues both due to the price per barrel and less oil being accessible (at least with current technology) and, if they're so keen on independence, why swap Westminster for Brussels? At least with the rest of the UK they have a shared language, currency, history and culture. If they want independence, let it be full independence. They'd face starting a new currency (backed by what? Sales of whisky and shortbread?), border controls with England, higher taxes. If they want to keep free tuition etc, the money from the Barnet formula would have to be replaced somehow, plus the falling oil revenue will have a massive impact on what public services could be offered and at what price. Do they really think that joining the EU with the associated conditions of the Schengen Agreement, joining the Euro zone and the instructions from Brussels is the same as independence?
Ah Ireland. I have a keen interest as my wife is from the Republic. NI could not survive as an independent country. There's no chance of reunification with Eire as they wouldn't want it (they long ago dropped the demand for the return of the 6 counties) and can you imagine the reaction of the Unionist parties? It'd be a return to the 70's with sectarian killings. Sinn Fein might want it but the Dáil Éireann would not. From what my wife tells me the majority of the people don't want reunification. One of the big reasons for the demand for the 6 counties to be returned was that it was perceived that they had all the industry and that Eire was mainly agricultural. That was nearly 100 years ago and things have changed. NI has lost a lot of it's industry (i.e. the ship yards) as has the midlands and north of England. Conversely, Eire has moved on from agriculture and has diversified (remember the Celtic tiger?). OK, they've suffered since as have other countries but it's no longer all diddly-i-di music and Guinness.
Could Scotland & NI join together? That'd be an interesting scenario. I was surprised at Wales voting to leave as they get such large amounts of money from the EU.
I did joke with my wife, asking her if I had to send her back as we're no longer in the EU but Eire is. She didn't laugh. Especially when I told her I wanted to keep her as there's a pile of ironing to do.
Finally, I've been seeing lots of comments from people under 30, particularly 18 - 25 year olds, complaining that us older people have destroyed their future. Apparently some 75% of 18 - 25 yr olds voted to remain but far more older people voted to leave. It seems that whilst overall voter turn out was over 72% especially amongst older voters, the turn out for 18 - 25 yr olds was about 48%. If they're not bothered about their personal views why the hell should I be? My vote (aged 56 and a half) is just as important as anyone else's.